Publications

Authors are ordered by level of contribution in the Reed Group publications

2024

Araujo, B., Gold, D., Lau, L., Reed, P. M., and Alves, C., “Exploring Equity Challenges within Deeply Uncertain Water Supply Investment Pathways in the Federal District of Brazil.”, ASCE Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, DOI: 10.1061/JWRMD5/WRENG-6353, (In-Press).

Zeff, H.B., Hadjimichael, A., Reed, P. M., and Characklis, G., “Using financial contracts to facilitate informal leases within a Western United States water market based on prior appropriation.”, Earth’s Future, (In-Press).

Quinn, J., Reed, P. M., Giuliani, M., and Castelletti, A., “Average domination: a new metric of multi-objective forecast value applied to assess if and how the value of forecast information in reservoir operations changes under different flood protection constraints.”, Advances in Water Resources, 185, 104638, DOI:10.1016/j.advwatres.2024.104638, 2024.

2023

Gupta, R., Steinschneider, S., and Reed, P. M., “Understanding Contributions of Paleo-Informed Natural Variability and Climate Changes on Hydroclimate Extremes in the San Joaquin Valley of California.”, Earth’s Future, 11(11), e2023EF003909, DOI:10.1029/2023EF003909, 2023.

Rodríguez-Flores, J., Gupta, R., Zeff, H.B., Reed, P. M., and Medellín-Azuara, J., “Identifying robust adaptive irrigation operating policies to balance deeply uncertain economic food production and groundwater sustainability trade-offs.”, Journal of Environmental Management, 345, 118901, DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118901, 2023.

Mach, K.J., R. Vallario, J.R. Arnold, C. Brelsford, K.V. Calvin, A.N. Flores, J. Gao, K. Jagannathan, D. Judi, C.E. Martín, F.C. Moore, R. Moss, E. Nance, B. Rashleigh, P.M. Reed, L. Shi, and L.L. Turek-Hankins, Ch. 18. Sector interactions, multiple stressors, and complex systems. In: Fifth National Climate Assessment. Crimmins, A.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA. DOI: 10.7930/NCA5.2023.CH18, 2023.

Gold, D., Reed, P. M., Gorelick, D., and Characklis, G., “Advancing Regional Water Supply Management and Infrastructure Investment Pathways that are Equitable, Robust, Adaptive, and Cooperatively Stable.”, Water Resources Research, 59(9), e2022WR033671, DOI:10.1029/2022WR033671, 2023.

Sunkara, S. V., Singh, R., Gold, D., Reed, P. M., and Bhave, A., “How should diverse stakeholder interests shape evaluations of complex water resources systems robustness when confronting deeply uncertain changes?“, Earth’s Future, 11(8), e2022EF003469, DOI:10.1029/2022EF003469, 2023.

Deb, K., Fleming, P., Jin, Y., Miettinen, K., & Reed, P. M., “Key Issues in Real-World Applications of Many-Objective Optimisation and Decision Analysis.”, In D. Brockhoff, M. Emmerich, B. Naujoks, & R. Purshouse (Eds.), Many-Criteria Optimization and Decision Analysis: State-of-the-Art, Present Challenges, and Future Perspectives (pp. 29-57). Cham: Springer International Publishing, DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-25263-1_2, 2023.

Hakanen, J., Gold, D., Miettinen, K., & Reed, P. M., “Visualisation for Decision Support in Many-Objective Optimisation: State-of-the-art, Guidance and Future Directions.”, In D. Brockhoff, M. Emmerich, B. Naujoks, & R. Purshouse (Eds.), Many-Criteria Optimization and Decision Analysis: State-of-the-Art, Present Challenges, and Future Perspectives (pp. 181-212). Cham: Springer International Publishing, DOI:10.1007/978-3-031-25263-1_7, 2023.

Lau, L., Reed, P. M., and Gold, D., “Evaluating Implementation Uncertainties and Defining Safe Operating Spaces for Deeply Uncertain Cooperative Multi-City Water Supply Investment Pathways.”, Water Resources Research, 59(7), e2023WR034841, DOI:10.1029/2023WR034841, 2023.

Yan, H., Sun, N., Elardiry, H., Thurber, T., Reed, P. M., Malek, K., Gupta, R., Kennedy, D., Swenson, S., Hou, Z., Cheng, Y., and Rice, J., “Large Ensemble Diagnostic Evaluation of Hydrologic Parameter Uncertainty in the Community Land Model Version 5 (CLM5)“, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 15(5), e2022MS003312, DOI:10.1029/2022MS003312, 2023.

Yan, H., Sun, N., Elardiry, H., Thurber, T., Reed, P. M., Malek, K., Gupta, R., Kennedy, D., Swenson, S., Wang, L., Li, D., Vernon, C., Burleyson, C., and Rice, J., “Characterizing uncertainty in Community Land Model version 5 hydrological applications in the United States.”, Scientific Data, 10(1), 187, DOI:10.1038/s41597-023-02049-7, 2023.

Gorelick, D., Gold, D., Reed, P. M., and Characklis, G., “Designing Water Utility Cooperative Agreements: Lessons Learned in North Carolina.”, Journal of the American Water Works Association, 115(1), DOI:10.1002/awwa.2034, 2023.

Gorelick, D., Gold, D., Asefa, T., Svrdlin, S., Wang, H., Wanakule, N., Reed, P. M., and Characklis, G., “Water supply infrastructure investment requires adaptive financial assessment: a novel evaluation of coupled financial and water supply dynamics.”, ASCE Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 149(3), 04022084, DOI:10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-5863, 2023.

Hadjimichael, A., Yoon, J., Reed, P. M., Voisin, N., and Xu, W., “Inferring water scarcity: Do large-scale hydrologic and node-based water systems model representations of the Upper Colorado river basin lead to consistent vulnerability insights?“, ASCE Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 149(2), 04022081, DOI:10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-5522, 2023.

Gupta, R., Steinschneider, S., and Reed, P. M., “A Multi-Objective Paleo-Informed Reconstruction of Western U.S. Weather Regimes Over the Past 600 Years.”, Climate Dynamics, 60(1), 339-358, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06302-4, 2023.

2022

BERAC. 2022. U.S. Scientific Leadership Addressing Energy, Ecosystems, Climate, and Sustainable Prosperity: Report from the BERAC Subcommittee on International Benchmarking, DOE/SC-0208. M. McCann and P. Reed, eds. Biological and Environmental Research Advisory Committee. DOI:10.2172/1895129.

Rodríguez-Flores, J., Valero-Fandiño, J., Cole, S., Malek, K., Karimi, T., Zeff, H., Reed, P. M., Escriva-Bou, A., and Medellín-Azuara, J., “Global Sensitivity Analysis of a Coupled Hydro-Economic Model and Groundwater Restriction Assessment.“, Water Resources Management, 36(15), 6115-6130, DOI:10.1007/s11269-022-03344-5, 2022.

Yoon, J., Romero-Lankao, P., Ethan Yang, Y. C., Klassert, C., Urban, N., Kaiser, K., Keller, K., Yarlagadda, B., Voisin, N., Reed, P. M., and Moss, R., “A Typology for Characterizing Human Action in MultiSector Dynamics Models.”, Earth’s Future, 10(8), e2021EF002641, DOI: 10.1029/2021EF002641, 2022.

Moallemi, E. A., Eker, S., Gao, L., Hadjikakou, M., Liu, Q., Kwakkel, J., Reed, P. M., Obersteiner, M., Guo, Z., & Bryan, B. A., “Early systems change necessary for catalyzing long-term sustainability in a post-2030 agenda.“, One Earth, 5(7), 792-811, DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2022.06.003, 2022.

Rangarajan, H., Hadka, D., Reed, P. M., and Lynch, J., “Multi-objective optimization of root phenotypes for nutrient acquistion using evolutionary algorithms.”, The Plant Journal, 111(1), 38-53, DOI:10.1111/tpj.15774, 2022.

Karimi, T., Reed, P. M., Malek, K., and Adam, J., “Diagnostic framework for evaluating how parametric uncertainty influences agro-hydrologic model projections of crop yields under climate change.”, Water Resources Research, 58(6), e2021WR031249, DOI: 10.1029/2021WR031249, 2022.

Hamilton, A., Zeff, H. B., Characklis, G., and Reed, P. M., “Resilient California water portfolios require infrastructure investment partnerships that are viable for all partners.”, Earth’s Future, 10(4), e2021EF002573, DOI: 10.1029/2021EF002573, 2022. (see Eos Research Spotlight)

Bojórquez-Tapia, L., Eakin, H., Reed, P. M., Miquelajauregui, Y., Grave, I., Merino-Benítez, T., and Molina-Pérez, E., “Unveiling uncertainties to enhance sustainability transformations in infrastructure decision-making.”, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 55, 101172. DOI:10.1016/j.cosust.2022.101172, 2022.

Gorelick, D., Gold, D. F., Reed, P. M., and Characklis, G., “Impact of inter-utility agreements on cooperative regional water infrastructure investment and management pathways.”, Water Resources Research, 58(3), e2021WR030700, DOI:10.1029/2021WR030700, 2022.

Reed, P.M., Hadjimichael, A., Malek, K., Karimi, T., Vernon, C.R., Srikrishnan, V., Gupta, R.S., Gold, D.F., Lee, B., Keller, K., Thurber, T.B., and Rice, J.S., Addressing Uncertainty in Multisector Dynamics Research [Book]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6110623, 2022. (open access)

Reed, P. M., Hadjimichael, A., Moss, R., Brelsford, C., Burleyson, C., Cohen, S., Dyreson, A., Gold, D., Gupta, R., Keller, K., Konar, M., Monier, E., Morris, J., Srikrishnan, V., Voisin, N., and Yoon, J., “MultiSector Dynamics: Advancing the Science of Complex Adaptive Human-Earth Systems.”, Earth’s Future, 10(3), e2021EF002621, DOI:10.1029/2021EF002621, 2022.

Pereira, F., Reed, P. M., and Selva, D. “Multi-objective design of a Lunar Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS).“, Navigation, 69(1), DOI:10.33012/navi.504, 2022.

Giuliani, M., Lamontagne, J., Hejazi, M., Reed, P. M., and Castelletti, A., “Unintended consequences of climate change mitigation for African river basins.“, Nature Climate Change, 12(2), 187-192, DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01262-9, 2022. (see Nature Climate Change Water in a Changing Climate Focus and Payet-Burin Mitigation North & Impact South Commentary Feature)

Gold, D., Reed, P. M., Gorelick, D., and Characklis, G., “Power and Pathways: Exploring robustness, cooperative stability and power relationships in regional infrastructure investment and water supply management portfolio pathways.”, Earth’s Future, 10(2), e2021EF002472, DOI: 10.1029/2021EF002472, 2022.

Reed, Patrick M., Hadjimichael, Antonia, Moss, Richard H., Monier, Erwan, Alba, Sequoia, Brelsford, Christa, Burleyson, Casey, Cohen, Stuart, Dyreson, Ana, Gold, David, Gupta, Rohini, Keller, Klaus, Konar, Megan, Macknick, Jordan, Morris, Jennifer, Srikrishnan, Vivek, Voisin, Nathalie, & Yoon, Jim. (2022). “MultiSector Dynamics: Scientific Challenges and a Research Vision for 2030“, A Community of Practice Supported by the United States Department of Energy’s Office of Science. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6144309.

Hamilton, A., Characklis, G., and Reed, P. M., “From Stream Flows to Cash Flows: Leveraging Evolutionary Multi-Objective Direct Policy Search to Manage Hydrologic Financial Risks.“, Water Resources Research, 58(1), e2021WR029747, DOI:10.1029/2021WR029747, 2022.

Voisin, N., Keller, K., Hadjimichael, A., Monier, E., Reed, P. M., and Moss, R., “A Two-Way Street: Interdependence of Climate Variability and Change with Human Systems.” US CLIVAR Variations v20, no. 1:22-31. doi:10.5065/9mn8-1p50, 2022.

Malek, K., Reed, P. M., Zeff, H.B., Hamilton, A., Wrzesien, M., Holtzman, N., Steinschneider, S., Herman, J., and Pavelsky, T., “Bias Correction of Hydrologic Projections Strongly Impacts Inferred Climate Vulnerabilities in Institutionally Complex Water Systems.“, ASCE Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, v148(1), 04021095, DOI:10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001493, 2022.

2021

Giuliani, M., Lamontagne, J., Reed, P. M., and Castelletti, A., “A State-of-the-Art Review of Optimal Reservoir Control for Managing Conflicting Demands in a Changing World.“, Water Resources Research, 57(12),17253779, DOI: 10.1029/2021WR029927, 2021.

Malek, K., Adam, J., Yoder, J., Givens, J., Stockle, C., Brady, M., Karimi, T., Rajagopalan, K., Liu, M., and Reed, P. M., “Impacts of irrigation efficiency on water-dependent sectors are heavily controlled by region-specific institutions and infrastructures.”, Journal of Environmental Management, v300, 113731, DOI:10.1016/j.envman.2021.113731, 2021.

Veena, S., Singh, R., Gold, D., Reed, P. M., and Bhave, A., “Improving information-based coordinated operations in inter-basin water transfer megaprojects: a case study in Southern India.“, ASCE Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, v147(11), 04021075, DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001456, 2021.

Moss, R. H., Reed, P. M., Hadjimichael, A., and Rozenberg, J., “Planned relocation: Pluralistic and integrated science and governance.”, Science, v372(6548), DOI: 1276.10.1126/science.abh3256.

Marangoni, G., Lamontagne, J., Quinn, J., Reed, P. M., and Keller, K., “Adaptive Mitigation Strategies Hedge Against Extreme Climate Futures.”, Climatic Change, v166(37), DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03132-x, 2021.

Doering, K., Quinn, J., Reed, P. M., and Steinschneider, S., “Diagnosing the time-varying value of forecasts in multi-objective reservoir control.”, ASCE Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, v147(7), 04021031, DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001386, 2021.

Kim, Gi Joo, Kim, Young-Oh, and Reed, P. M., “Improving the Robustness of Reservoir Operations with Stochastic Dynamic Programming.”, ASCE Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 147(7), 04021030, DOI:10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001381, 2021.

Zeff, H., Hamilton, A., Malek, K., Herman, J., Cohen, J., Medellin-Azuara, J., Reed, P. M., and Characklis, G., “California’s Food-Energy-Water System: An Open Source Simulation Model of Adaptive Surface and Groundwater Management in the Central Valley.”, Environmental Modelling and Software, v141,105052, DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105052, 2021.

Dolan, F., Lamontagne, J., Link, R., Hejazi, M., Reed, P. M., and Edmonds, J., “Evaluating the economic impact of water scarcity in changing world.”, Nature Communications, 12(1), 1915, DOI:10.1038/s41467-021-22194-0, 2021.

Rougé, C., Reed, P. M., Grogan, D. S., Zuidema, S., Prusevich, A., Glidden, S., Lamontagne, J. R., & Lammers, R. B. “Coordination and Control: Limits in Standard Representations of Multi-Reservoir Operations in Hydrological Modeling.“, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 25(3), 1365-1388, 10.5194/hess-25-1365-2021, 2021.

Bertoni, F., Castelletti, A., Giuliani, M, and Reed, P. M., “Designing with Information Feedbacks: Forecast Informed Reservoir Sizing and Operation.“, Water Resources Research, 57(3), e2020WR028112, DOI:10.1029/2020WR028112, 2021.

Kendler, S., Nebenzal, A., Gold, D., Reed, P. M., and Fishbain, B., “The effects of air pollution sources / sensor array configurations on the likelihood of obtaining accurate source term estimations.”, Atmospheric Environment, v246, 117754, DOI:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117754, 2021.

Wild, T., Birnbaum, A., Reed, P. M., and Loucks, D. P., “An open source reservoir and sediment simulation framework for identifying and evaluating siting, design, and operation alternatives.“, Environmental Modelling and Software, v136, 104947, DOI:10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104947, 2021.

2020

Quinn, J., Hadjimichael, A., Reed, P. M., and Steinschneider, S., “Can exploratory modeling of water scarcity vulnerabilities and robustness be scenario neutral?“, Earth’s Future, 8(11), e2020EF001650, DOI:10.1029/2020EF001650, 2020. (see Eos Spotlight Feature Story)

Hadjimichael, A., Quinn, J., and Reed, P. M., “Advancing diagnostic model evaluation to better understand water shortage mechanisms in institutionally complex river basins.”, Water Resources Research, 56(10), e2020WR028079, DOI: 10.1029/2020WR028079, 2020.

Hamilton, A., Characklis, G., and Reed, P. M., “Managing financial risk tradeoffs for hydropower generation using snowpack-based index contracts.”, Water Resources Research, 56(10), DOI:10.1029/2020WR027212,. e2020WR027212, 2020. (see Eos editorial highlight)

Trindade, B., Reed, P. M., Gold, D., Zeff, H., and Characklis, G., “Water Pathways: An open source stochastic simulation system for integrated water supply portfolio management and infrastructure investment planning.”, Environmental Modelling and Software, v132, 104772, DOI:10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104772, 2020.

Su, Y., Kern, J., Reed, P. M., and Characklis, G., “Compound Hydrometeorological Extremes Across Multiple Timescales Driving Volatility in California Electricity Market Prices and Emissions.”, Applied Energy, v276, 115541, DOI:10.1016/j.apenergy.2020115541, 2020.

Gupta, R., Hamilton, A., Reed, P. M., and Characklis, G., “Can Modern Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms Discover High-Dimensional Financial Risk Portfolio Tradeoffs for Snow-Dominated Water-Energy Systems?”, Advances in Water Resources, v145, 103718, DOI:10.1016/j.advwatres.2020.103718, 2020.

Malek, K., Reed, P. M., Adam, J., Karimi, T., and Brady, M., “Water rights shape crop yield and revenue volatility tradeoffs for adaptation in snow dependent systems.“, Nature Communications, 11(1), 3473, doi:10.1038/s41467-020-17219-z, 2020.

Hadjimichael, A., Quinn, J., Wilson, E., Reed, P. M., Basdekas, L., Yates, D., and Garrison, M., “Defining robustness, vulnerabilities, and consequential scenarios for diverse stakeholder interests in institutionally complex river basins.“, Earth’s Future, 8(7), e2020EF001503, DOI:10.1029/2020EF001503, (2020).

Hadjimichael, A., Gold, D., Hadka, D., and Reed, P. M., “Rhodium: Python Library for Many-Objective Robust Decision Making and Exploratory Modeling.”, Journal of Open Research Software, 8 (1), p. 12, DOI:10.5334/jors.293, 2020.

Kern, J., Su, Y., Denaro, S., Hill, J., Reed, P. M., Sun, Y., Cohen, J., and Characklis, G., “An open source model for quantifying risks in bulk electric power systems from spatially and temporally correlated hydrometeorological processes.“, Environmental Modelling & Software, v126, 104667, DOI:10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104667, 1-12, 2020.

Hadjimichael, A., Reed, P.M., and Quinn, J., “Navigating deeply uncertain tradeoffs in harvested predator-prey systems.“, Complexity, Special Issue on Complexity, Dynamics, Control and Applications of Nonlinear Systems with Multistability, v2020, Article ID 4170453, DOI:10.1155/2020/4170453, 1-18, 2020.

Bertoni, F., Castelletti, A., Giuliani, M., and Reed, P. M., “Discovering Dependencies, Trade-offs, and Robustness in Joint Dam Design and Operation: An Ex-post Assessment of the Kariba Dam.”, Earth’s Future, v7, no. 12, DOI:10.1029/2019EF001235, 1367-1390, 2020.

Singh, L. , Whittecar, W., DiPrinzio, M., Herman, J., Ferringer, M., and Reed, P.M., “Low cost satellite constellations for nearly continuous global coverage.”, Nature Communications, v11, no. 1, article no. 200, DOI:10.1038/s41467-019-13865-0, 2020. (Nature Research Highlight, 2020 Humies Gold Medal Contribution)

Gorelick, D. E., Lin, L., Zeff, H.B., Kim, Y., Vose, J., Coulston, J., Wear, D., Band, L., Reed, P. M., and Characklis, G., “Accounting for Adaptive Water Supply Management When Quantifying Climate and Land Cover Change Vulnerability.”, Water Resources Research, v56, no. 1, e2019WR025614, doi: 10.1029/2019wr025614, 2020.

Oddo, P., Lee, B. S., Garner, G., Reed, P.M., Forest, C.E. and Keller, K. “Deep uncertainties in sea-level rise and storm surge projections: Implications for coastal flood risk management.”, Risk Analysis, v40, no. 1, DOI:10.1111/risa.12888, 153-168, 2020.

Moallemi, E., Zare, F., Reed, P. M., Elsawah, S., Ryan, M., and Bryan, B., “Structuring and evaluating decision support processes to enhance the robustness of complex human–natural systems.”, Environmental Modelling and Software, v123, 104551, DOI:10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104551, 1-16, 2020.

2019

Trindade, B., Reed, P. M., and Characklis, G., “Deeply Uncertain Pathways: Integrated Multi-City Regional Water Supply Infrastructure Investment and Portfolio Management.“, Advances in Water Resources, v134, DOI:10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.103442, 2019.

Gold, D., Reed, P. M., Trindade, B., and Characklis, G., “Identifying Actionable Compromises: Navigating Multi-City Robustness Conflicts to Discover Cooperative Safe Operating Spaces for Regional Water Supply Portfolios.“, Water Resources Research, v55, no. 11, DOI:10.1029/2019WR025462, 9024-9050, 2019.

Quinn, J. D., Reed, P. M., Giuliani, M., and Castelletti, A., “What is controlling our control rules? Opening the black box of multi-reservoir operating policies using time-varying sensitivity analysis“., Water Resources Research, v55, no. 7, DOI:10.1029/2018WR024177, 5962-5984, 2019.

Lamontagne, J., Reed, P. M., Marangoni, G., Keller, K., and Garner, G., “Robust abatement pathways to tolerable climate futures require immediate global action.”, Nature Climate Change, v9, no. 4, DOI:10.1038/s41558-019-0426-8, 290-294, 2019.

Bode, F., Reed, P. M., Reuschen, S., and Nowak, W., “Search Space Representation and Reduction Methods to Enhance Multi-Objective Water Supply Monitoring Design.”, Water Resources Research, v55, no. 3, DOI:10.1029/2018WR023133, 2257-2278, 2019.

Wild, T., Reed, P. M., Loucks, D. P., Mallen-Cooper, M., and Jensen, E., “Balancing Hydropower Development and Ecological Impacts in the Mekong: Tradeoffs for Sambor Mega Dam.”, ASCE Journal Water Resources Planning & Management, v145, no. 2, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001036, 2019. (Awarded 2020 Quentin Martin Best Practice Paper for JWRPM)

2018

Bonzanigo, Laura; Rozenberg, Julie; Felter, Gregory Calner; Lempert, Robert J.; Reed, Patrick Michael. 2018. Building the Resilience of WSS Utilities to Climate Change and Other Threats : A Road Map (English). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group

Clarke, L., L. Nichols, R. Vallario, M. Hejazi, J. Horing, A.C. Janetos, K. Mach, M. Mastrandrea, M. Orr, B.L. Preston, P. Reed, R.D. Sands, and D.D. White, 2018: Sector Interactions, Multiple Stressors, and Complex Systems. In Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II [Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA. doi: 10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH17

Gorelick, D., Zeff, H., Characklis, G., and Reed, P. M., “Integrating raw water transfers into an Eastern United States management context.”, ASCE Journal Water Resources Planning & Management, v144, no. 9, DOI:10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000966, 05018012, 2018.

Quinn, J. D., Reed, P. M., Giuliani, M., Castelletti, A., Oyler, J. W., and Nicholas, R., “Exploring How Changing Monsoonal Dynamics and Human Pressures Challenge Multi-Reservoir Management for Flood Protection, Hydropower Production, and Agricultural Water Supply.“, Water Resources Research, v54, DOI:10.1029/2018WR022743, 4638-4662, 2018.

Lamontagne, J., Reed, P. M., Link, R., Calvin, K., Clarke, L., and Edmonds, J., “Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios.”, Earth’s Future, v6, no. 3, DOI: 10.1002/2017EF000701, 488-504, 2018. (See Schweizer, 2018 Nature Climate Change Highlight)

Singh, R., Quinn, J., Reed, P. M. and Keller, K. “Skill (or lack thereof) of data-model fusion techniques to provide an early warning signal for an approaching tipping point.” PLOS ONE 13(2), 10.1371/journal.pone.0191768: e0191768, 2018.

Giuliani, M., Quinn, J., Herman, J., Castelletti, A., and Reed, P. M., “Scalable multi-objective control for large scale water resources systems under uncertainty.”, IEEE Transactions on Control Systems Technology, v26, no. 4, DOI:10.1109/TCST.2017.2705162, 1492-1499, 2018.

2017

Zatarain Salazar, J., Reed, P.M., Quinn, J., Giuliani, M., and Castelletti, A., “Balancing Exploration, Uncertainty and Computational Demands in Many Objective Reservoir Optimization.”, Advances in Water Resources, v109, 196-210, DOI: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2017.09.014, 2017.

Quinn, J., Reed, P.M., Giuliani, M., and Castelletti, A., “Rival Framings: A Framework for Discovering How Problem Formulation Uncertainties Shape Risk Management Tradeoffs in Water Resources Systems.”, Water Resources Research, v53, DOI: 10.1002/2017WR020524, 2017.

Scanlon, B., Ruddell, B., Reed, P.M., Hook, R., Zheng, C., Tidwell, V., and Siebert, S., “The Food-Energy-Water Nexus: Transforming Science for Society.”, Water Resources Research, v53, DOI:10.1002/2017WR020889, 2017.

Trindade, B., Reed, P.M., Herman, J.D., Zeff, H.B., and Characklis, G., “Reducing regional drought vulnerabilities and multi-city robustness conflicts using many-objective optimization under deep uncertainty.”, Advances in Water Resources, v104, DOI: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2017.03.023,195-209, 2017.

Quinn, J., Reed, P.M., and Keller, K., “Direct Policy Search for Robust Multi-Objective Management of Deeply Uncertain Socio-Ecological Tipping Points.”, Environmental Modelling and Software, v92, 125-141, 2017.

2016

Zeff, H.B., Herman, J., Reed, P.M., and Characklis, G., “Cooperative drought adaptation: Integrating infrastructure development, conservation, and water transfers into adaptive policy pathways.”, Water Resources Research, v52, no. 9, 10.1002/2016WR018771: 7327-7346, 2016. (Awarded 2019 INFORMS Energy, Natural Resources, and the Environment Best Publication)

Herman, J., Zeff, H., Lamontagne, J., Reed, P.M., and Characklis, G., “Synthetic Drought Scenario Generation to Support Bottom-Up Water Supply Vulnerability Assessments.”, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, v142, no. 11, 2016.

Zatarain Salazar, J., Reed, P.M., Herman, J., Giuliani, M., and Castelletti, A., “A Diagnostic Assessment of Evolutionary Algorithms for Multi-Objective Surface Reservoir Control.”, Advances in Water Resources, v92, 172-185, 2016.

Garner, G., Reed,P., and Keller, K., “Climate Risk Management Requires Explicit Representation of Societal Trade-Offs.”, Climatic Change, v134, no. 4, 713-723, 2016.

Kasprzyk, J., Reed, P.M., and Hadka, D., “Battling Arrow’s Paradox to Discover Robust Water Management Alternatives.”, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, v142, no. 2, 15053-15053, 2016.

Giuliani, M., Castelletti, A., Pianosi, F., Mason, E. and Reed, P.M.,“Curses, tradeoffs, and scalable management: advancing evolutionary multi-objective direct policy search to improve water reservoir operations.”, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, v142, no. 2, 15050-15050, 2016.

2015

Matrosov, E., Huskova, I., Kasprzyk, J., Harou, J., Lambert, C. and Reed, P.M., “Many-Objective Optimization and Visual Analytics Reveal Key Trade-offs for London’s Water Supply.”, Journal of Hydrology, v531, Part 3, 1040-1053, 2015.

Brown, C., Lund, J., Cai, X., Reed, P.M., Zagona, E., Ostfeld, A., Hall, J., Characklis, G., Yu, W., and Brekke, L., “The Future of Water Resources Systems Analysis: Toward a Scientific Framework for Sustainable Water Management.”, Water Resources Research, 51, 6110–6124, doi:10.1002/2015WR017114, 2015 (50th Anniversary Issue).

Hadka, D., Herman, J., Reed, P.M., Keller, K. “An Open Source Framework for Many-Objective Robust Decision Making”, Environmental Modelling & Software, v74, 114-129, 2015.

Ward, V., Singh, R., Reed, P.M., and Keller, K., “Confronting Tipping Points: Can Multi-objective Evolutionary Algorithms Discover Pollution Control Tradeoffs Given Environmental Thresholds?”, Environmental Modelling & Software, v73, 27-43, 2015.

Singh, R., Reed, P.M., and Keller, K., “Many-objective robust decision making for managing an ecosystem with a deeply uncertain threshold response”, Ecology and Society v20, No.3, 12, doi: 10.5751/ES-07687-200312, 2015.

Chaney, N., Herman, J., Reed, P.M., and Wood, E.F., “Flood and Drought Hydrologic Monitoring: The Role of Model Parameter Uncertainty”, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, v19, 3239-3251, 2015.

Hadka, D., and Reed, P.M., “Large-scale Parallelization of the Borg MOEA for Many-Objective Optimization of Complex Environmental Systems”, Environmental Modelling & Software, v69, 353-369, 2015. (Part of Thematic Issue)

Reed, P. M., Chaney, N., Herman, J., Ferringer, M., and Wood, E. F., “Internationally Coordinated Multi-Mission Planning Is Now Critical to Sustain the Space-based Rainfall Observations Needed for Managing Floods Globally”, Environmental Research Letters, 10, (024010), 2015.

Herman, J.D., Reed, P.M., Zeff, H.B., and Characklis, G., “How should robustness be defined for water systems planning under change?”, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, v141, no. 10, 04015012, 2015. (Awarded 2016 Quentin Martin Best Practice Paper for JWRPM)

2014

Butler, M., Reed, P.M., Fisher-Vanden, K., Keller, K., and Wagener, T., “Inaction and climate stabilization uncertainties lead to severe economic costs”, Climatic Change, v127, n3-4, 463-474, 2014.

Reed, P.M. and Hadka, D., “Evolving Many-Objective Water Management to Exploit Exascale Computing”, Water Resources Research, v50, n10, 8367–8373, 2014.

Herman, J.D., Zeff, H.B., Reed, P.M., and Characklis, G., “Beyond Optimality: Multi-stakeholder robustness tradeoffs for regional water portfolio planning under deep uncertainty”, Water Resources Research, v50, n10, 7692–7713, 2014 (Featured on Issue Cover).

Hadka, D., and Reed, P.M., “Serial Borg MOEA Patent”, United States Patent No. 8,856,054, Issued October 7, 2014.

Maier, H. R., Z. Kapelan, J. Kasprzyk, J. Kollat, L. S. Matott, M. Cunha, G. C. Dandy, M. S. Gibbs, E. Keedwell, A. Marchi, A. Ostfeld, D. Savic, D. Solomatine, J. A. Vrugt, A. C. Zecchin, B. S. Minsker, E. Barbour, G. Kuczera, F. Pasha, A. Castelletti, M. Giuliani, and P.M. Reed, “Evolutionary algorithms and other metaheuristics in water resources: Current status, research challenges and future directions”, Environmental Modelling & Software, v62, 271-299, 2014.

Ferringer, M., DiPrinzio, M., Thompson, T., Hanifen, K., Whittecar, W., and Reed, P. M., “A Framework for the Discovery of Passive-Control, Minimum Energy Satellite Constellations”, AIAA/AAS Astrodynamics Specialist Conference, San Diego, CA, 2014.

Zeff, H. B., Kasprzyk, J. R., Herman, J. D., Reed, P. M., and Characklis, G., “Navigating Financial and Supply Reliability Tradeoffs in Regional Drought Portfolios”, Water Resources Research, v50, n6, 4906-4903, 2014.

Giuliani, M., Herman, J., Castelletti, A., and Reed, P., “Many-objective reservoir policy identification and refinement to reduce policy inertia and myopia in water management.”, Water Resources Research, v50, n4, 3355–3377, 2014.

Butler, M., Reed, P. M., Fisher-Vanden, K., Keller, K., and Wagener, T., “Identifying Parametric Controls and Dependencies in Integrated Assessment Models using Global Sensitivity Analysis.”, Environmental Modelling & Software, v59, 10-29, 2014.

Marchi, A. et al., (2014). “Battle of the Water Networks II.”, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management v140, n7, 1-14, 2014.

2013

Herman, J., Kollat, J., Reed, P.M., and Wagener, T., “From maps to movies: High resolution time-varying sensitivity analysis for spatially distributed watershed models.”, Hydrology and Earth Systems Sciences, v17, 5109-5125, 2013.

Thompson, S., Sivapalan, M., Harman, C., Srinivasan, V., Hipsey, M., Reed, P., Montanari, A., and Bloschl, G., “Developing predictive insight into changing water systems: Use-inspired hydrologic science for the Anthropocene.”Hydrology and Earth Systems Sciences, v17, 5013-5039, 2013.

Fu, G., Kapelan, Z., Kasprzyk, J., and Reed, P.M., “Optimal Design of Water Distribution Systems using Many-Objective Visual Analytics.” ASCE Journal of Water Resources Planning & Management, v139, n6, 624-633, 2013 (Winner of the 2014 Quentin Martin Best Practice Paper).

Fernandez, A., Blumsack, S., and Reed, P.M., “Operational Constraints and Hydrologic Variability Limit Hydropower in Supporting Wind Integration.” Environmental Research Letters, 8, 024037, 8pp, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/0214037, 2013.

Herman, J., Kollat, J., Reed, P.M., and Wagener, T., “Technical Note: Method of Morris effectively reduces the computational demands of global sensitivity analysis for distributed watershed models.”, Hydrology and Earth Systems Sciences, v17, 2893-2903, 2013.

Woodruff, M., Reed, P.M., and Simpson, T., “Many-Objective Visual Analytics: Rethinking the Design of Complex Engineered Systems.” Structural and Multidisciplinary Optimization, v48, 201-219, 2013.

Hadka, D., and Reed, P.M., “Borg: An Auto-Adaptive Many-Objective Evolutionary Computing Framework.”Evolutionary Computation, v21, n2, 231-259, 2013.

Herman, J., Reed, P.M., and Wagener, T., “Time-varying sensitivity analysis clarifies the effects of watershed model formulation on model behavior.” Water Resources Research, v49, n3, 1400-1414, 2013.

Reed, P. M., and Kollat, J. B., “Visual Analytics Clarify the Scalability and Effectiveness of Massively Parallel Many-Objective Optimization: A Groundwater Monitoring Design Example.” Advances in Water Resources, v56, 1-13, 2013.

Kasprzyk, J., Nataraj, S., Reed, P. M., and Lempert, R. J., “Many-Objective Robust Decision Making for Complex Environmental Systems Undergoing Change.” Environmental Modelling & Software, v42, 55-71, 2013.

Nguyen, N., Shortle, J., Reed, P. M., and Nguyen, T., “Water Quality Trading with Asymmetric Information, Uncertainty, and Transaction Costs: A Stochastic Agent-based Simulation.” Resource and Energy Economics, v35, n1, 60-90, 2013.

Reed, P.M., Hadka, D., Herman, J., Kasprzyk, J., and Kollat, J., “Evolutionary Multiobjective Optimization in Water Resources: The Past, Present, and Future.” (Editor Invited Submission to 35th Anniversary Special Issue), Advances in Water Resources, v51, 438-456, 2013.

2012

Hadka, D., Reed, P.M., and Simpson, T.W., “Diagnostic Assessment of the Borg MOEA for Many-Objective Product Family Design Problems.” IEEE Congress on Evolutionary Computation (CEC 12)as part of World Congress on Computational Intelligence, Brisbane, Australia (2012).

Hadka, D., and Reed, P.M., “Diagnostic Assessment of Search Controls and Failure Modes in Many-Objective Evolutionary Optimization.”, Evolutionary Computation, v20, n3, 423-452, 2012.

Fu, G., Kapelan, Z., and Reed, P.M., “Reducing the Complexity of Multi-objective Water Distribution System Optimization Through Global Sensitivity Analysis.”, Journal of Water Resources Planning & Management, ASCE Journal of Water Resources Planning & Management, v138, n3, 196-207, 2012.

Fernandez, A., Blumsack, S., and Reed, P. M., “Evaluating Wind-Following and Ecosystem Services for Hydroelectric Dams in PJM.”, Journal of Regulatory Economics, v41, n1, 139-154, 2012.

Reed, P.M., and Kollat, J.B., “Save Now, Pay Later? Multi-Period Many-Objective Groundwater Monitoring Design Given Systematic Model Errors and Uncertainty.”, Advances in Water Resources, v35, n1, 55-68, 2012.

Kollat, J.B., Reed, P.M., Wagener, T., “When are Multi-Objective Calibration Tradeoffs in Rainfall-Runoff Models Meaningful?”. Water Resources Research, v48, W03520, March 2012, doi:10.1029/2011WR011534.

Kasprzyk, J. R., Reed, P. M., Kirsch, B. R., and Characklis, G. W., “Many-Objective de Novo Water Supply Portfolio Planning Under Deep Uncertainty.” Environmental Modelling & Software, v34,87-104, 2012.

2011

Kollat, J.B., Reed, P.M., and Maxwell, R., “Many-objective Groundwater Monitoring Network Design using Bias-Aware Ensemble Kalman Filtering, Evolutionary Optimization, and Visual Analytics.” Water Resources Research, v47, W02529, doi:10.1029/2010WR009194, 2011.

Shah, R., and Reed, P.M., “Comparative Analysis of Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms for Random and Correlated Instances of Multiobjective d-Dimensional Knapsack Problems.”, European Journal of Operational Research, v211, n3, 466-479, 2011.

Shah, R., Reed, P. M., and Simpson, T., “Many-objective Evolutionary Optimization and Visual Analytics for Product Family Design.” in Springer-Verlag London Multi-objective Evolutionary Optimisation for Product Design and Manufacturing, Editors: Wang, L., Ng, A., and Deb, K., 2011.

2010

Reed, P. M., Bills, B., Anderson, M., Ketchum, B., and Piasecki, M., “The Mid-Atlantic Watershed Atlas (MAWA): Open access data search & watershed-based community building.” Environmental Modelling & Software, v25, n6, 808-812, 2010.

Nicklow, J., Reed, P. M., Savic, D., Dessalegne, T., Harrell, L., Chan-Hilton, A., Karamouz, Minsker, B., Ostfeld, A., Singh, A., and Zechman, E., “State of the Art for Genetic Algorithms and Beyond in Water Resources Planning and Management.” ASCE Journal of Water Resources Planning & Management, v136, n4, 412-432, 2010. (Awarded 2020 Best Seminal Paper in JWRPM)

2009

Kasprzyk, J. R., Reed, P. M., Kirsch, B. R., and Characklis, G. W., “Managing population and drought risks using many-objective water portfolio planning under uncertainty.” Water Resources Research, v45, W12401, 2009.

Ferringer, M., Spencer, D., and Reed, P. M., “Many-objective Reconfiguration of Operational Satellite Constellations with the Large-Cluster Epsilon Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II.” IEEE Congress on Evolutionary Computation (CEC 09), DOI: 10.1109/CEC.2009.4982967, 340-349, 2009. See related video of Reed’s Vision for the Future of Earth Observation at European Geophysical Union 2011 Meeting

van Werkhoven, K., Wagener, T., Reed, P. M., and Tang, Y., “Sensitivity-guided reduction of parametric dimensionality for multi-objective calibration of watershed models.” Advances in Water Resources, v32, n8, pp. 1154-1169, 2009.

Reed, P. M., and Kasprzyk, J. R., “Water Resources Management: The Myth, The Wicked, & The Future.” ASCE Journal of Water Resources Planning & Management, v135, n6, pp. 411-413, 2009.

Wagener, T., Reed, P. M., van Werkhoven, K., Tang, Y. and Zhang, Z., “Advances in the Identification and Evaluation of Complex Environmental Systems Models.” Journal of Hydroinformatics, v11, n3-4, pp. 266-281, 2009.

Bai, Y., Wagener, T., and Reed, P. M., “A Top-Down Framework for Watershed Model Evaluation and Selection under Uncertainty.” Environmental Modelling & Software, v24, n8, 901-916, 2009.

Wagener, T., van Werkhoven, K., Reed, P. M., and Tang, Y., “Multi-objective Sensitivity Analysis to Understand the Information Content in Streamflow Observations for Distributed Watershed Modeling.” Water Resources Research, 45, W02501, doi:10.1029/2008WR007347, 2009.

2008

Kollat, J.B., Reed, P.M., and Rizzo, D., “Addressing Model Bias and Uncertainty in Three Dimensional Groundwater Transport Forecasts for a Physical Aquifer Experiment.” Geophysical Research Letters , 35, L17402, doi:10.1029/2008GL035021, 2008.

Characklis, G. and Reed, P. M., “An Evolving Paradigm for Publication in the Water Resources Management Field.”Journal of Contemporary Water Research & Education,139: 37-39, June 2008.

van Werkhoven, K., Wagener, T., Reed, P. M., and Tang, Y., “Rainfall characteristics define the value of streamflow observations for distributed watershed model identification.” Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L11403, doi:10.1029/2008GL033721, 2008.

Zhang, Z., Wagener, T., Reed, P. M., and Bhushan, R., “Reducing Uncertainty in Predictions in Ungauged Basins by Combining Hydrologic Indices Regionalization and Multiobjective Optimization.” Water Resources Research, 44, W00B04, doi:10.1029/2008WR006833, 2008.

Reed, P. M., Ferringer, M., Thompson, T., and Kollat, J. B., “Parallel Evolutionary Multi-objective Optimization on Large, Heterogeneous Clusters: An Applications Perspective.” Journal of Aerospace Computing, Information, and Communication, 5: pp. 460-478, November 2008.

Kollat, J. B., Reed, P. M., and Kasprzyk, J. R., “A New Epsilon-Dominance Hierarchical Bayesian Optimization Algorithm for Large Multi-Objective Monitoring Network Design Problems”, Advances in Water Resources, 31(5): 828-845, 2008.

van Werkhoven, K., Wagener, T., Reed, P. M., and Tang, Y., “Characterization of Watershed Model Behavior Across a Hydroclimatic Gradient.” Water Resources Research, 44, W01429, doi:10.1029/2007WR006271, 2008.

2007

Tang, Y., Reed, P. M., van Werkhoven, K., and Wagener, T., “Advancing the Identification and Evaluation of Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Models Using Global Sensitivity Analysis.” Water Resources Research, 43, W06415, doi:10.1029/2006WR005813, 2007.

Kollat, J. B., and Reed, P. M., “A Framework for Visually Interactive Decision-making and Design using Evolutionary Multiobjective Optimization (VIDEO).” Environmental Modelling & Software, 22(12): pp. 1691-1704, 2007.

Reed, P. M., Tang, Y., and Wagener, T., “Reply on: How effective and efficient are multiobjective evolutionary algorithms at hydrologic model calibration? by Yong Tang et al.” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 11, 1437-1439, 2007. Online Journal Access

Loescher, H.W., Jacobs, J., Wendroth, O., Robinson, D.A. Poulos, G.S., McGuire, K., Reed, P., Mohanty, B., Krajewski, W., “Enhancing Water Cycle Measurements for Future Hydrologic Research.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-88-5, pp. 669-676, 2007.

Tang, Y., Reed, P. M., Wagener, T., and van Werkhoven, K., “Comparing sensitivity analysis methods to advance lumped watershed model identification and evaluation.” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 11, 793-817, 2007.

Characklis, G., Reed, P. M., and Minsker, B.S. “The Role of Systems Analysis in NSF’s Environmental Observatories.”Journal of Water Resources Planning & Management, 133(1): pp. 1-3, 2007.

Tang, Y., Reed, P. M., and Kollat, J. B., “Parallelization Strategies for Rapid and Robust Evolutionary Multiobjective Optimization in Water Resources Applications.” Advances in Water Resources, 30(3): 335-353, 2007.

Kollat, J. B., and Reed, P. M., “A Computational Scaling Analysis of Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms in Long-Term Groundwater Monitoring Applications.” Advances in Water Resources, 30(3): 408-419, 2007.

Reed, P. Kollat, J. B., and Devireddy, V., “Using Interactive Archives in Evolutionary Multiobjective Optimization: A Case Study for Long-Term Groundwater Monitoring Design.” Environmental Modelling & Software, 22(5): pp. 683-692, 2007.

2006

Reed, P. M., Brooks, R. B., Davis, K. J., DeWalle, D. R., Dressler, K. A., Duffy, C. J., Lin, H., Miller, D. A., Najjar, R. G., Salvage, K. M., Wagener, T., and Yarnal, B., “Bridging River Basin Scales and Processes to Assess Human-Climate Impacts and the Terrestrial Hydrologic System.” Water Resources Research, 42, W07418: doi:10.1029/2005WR004153, 2006.

Tang, Y., Reed, P.M., and Wagener, T., “How effective and efficient are multiobjective evolutionary algorithms at hydrologic model calibration?” Hydrology and Earth System Science, 10, 289-307, 2006.

Kollat, J. B., and Reed, P. M., “Comparison of Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms for Long-Term Monitoring Design.” Advances in Water Resources, 29(6): pp. 792-807, 2006.

Earlier

Reed, P., T. Ellsworth, and B.S. Minsker, “Spatial Interpolation Methods for Nonstationary Plume Data.” Ground Water, 42(2): pp. 190-202, 2004.

Reed, P. and B.S. Minsker, “Striking the Balance: Long-Term Groundwater Monitoring Design for Conflicting Objectives.” Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 130(2): pp. 140-149, 2004.

Reed, P., B. S. Minsker, and D. E. Goldberg, “Simplifying Multiobjective Optimization: An Automated Design Methodology for the Nondominated Sorted Genetic Algorithm-II.” Water Resources Research, 39(7): p. 1096, doi:10.1029/2002WR001483, 2002.

Reed, P. M., B. S. Minsker, and D. E. Goldberg, “A multiobjective approach to cost effective long-term groundwater monitoring using an elitist nondominated sorted genetic algorithm with historical data.” Invited paper, Journal of Hydroinformatics, 3: pp. 71-89, 2001.

Reed, P. M., B. S. Minsker, and A. J. Valocchi. “Cost effective long-term groundwater monitoring design using a genetic algorithm and global mass interpolation.” Water Resources Research, 36(12): pp. 3731-3741, 2000.

Reed., P. M., B. S. Minsker, and D. E. Goldberg. “Designing a Competent Simple Genetic Algorithm for Search and Optimization.” Water Resources Research, 36(12): pp. 3757-3761, 2000.